Methodology
A full write-up of the model behind the calculator: the inputs, the arithmetic and every adjustment applied. Suitable to share with an accountant or adviser.
Small hosting businesses are bought for their recurring revenue, so the model values annual recurring revenue (ARR) rather than turnover or profit. ARR is estimated from the two revenue answers:
ARR = annual revenue x (recurring revenue % / 100)
The indicative range is then ARR multiplied by a low and a high multiple. Both multiples start from the same base and are moved up or down by the quality of the business.
Base multiple range = 0.80x to 1.40x ARR low multiple = 0.80 + sum of low adjustments high multiple = 1.40 + sum of high adjustments Valuation low = ARR x low multiple Valuation high = ARR x high multiple
Adjustments are additive, expressed in multiples of ARR (so +0.10 means "plus a tenth of one year's recurring revenue"). After all adjustments, both multiples are clamped to a floor of 0.35x and a ceiling of 1.70x so that unusual combinations of answers cannot produce an implausible number. If the high multiple ends below the low multiple, the two are set equal.
New sales are valued as the recurring revenue they add in a full year, measured against the existing base. The ARPU band supplies a mid-point monthly figure (for example £20 - £50 uses £35).
New ARR = new customers per year x ARPU mid-point x 12 Implied organic growth % = (New ARR / ARR) x 100
That percentage is then matched to a growth band below. It is a gross figure: it does not net off churn, which is assessed separately as a quality adjustment. Where revenue or new customers are zero, no growth adjustment is applied.
Annual revenue £400,000 Recurring 90% ARR = £360,000 Trading 10-20 years low +0.06 high +0.10 Direct SME customers low +0.05 high +0.08 Churn 5-10% low +0.06 high +0.10 Gross margin 50-60% low +0.08 high +0.12 Average tenure 5-10 years low +0.08 high +0.10 No customer over 5% low +0.08 high +0.12 UK hosting provider low +0.04 high +0.05 Recurring 90%+ low +0.15 high +0.20 ARPU £20-£50 (mid £35) low +0.07 high +0.10 Platforms cPanel + WHMCS low +0.09 high +0.11 (cap 0.12) 300 new customers x £35 x 12 = £126,000 new ARR = 35% implied growth low +0.15 high +0.22 low multiple = 0.80 + 0.91 = 1.71 -> clamped to 1.70 high multiple = 1.40 + 1.30 = 2.70 -> clamped to 1.70 Indicative range = £360,000 x 1.70 = £612,000
The example deliberately shows the ceiling in action: a business scoring well on every measure is capped at 1.70x ARR, because beyond that point a real transaction depends on diligence rather than a questionnaire.
Applied from the recurring revenue percentage entered on step two.
| Answer | Effect on low multiple | Effect on high multiple |
|---|---|---|
| 90% or more of revenue is recurring | +0.15x | +0.20x |
| 75% - 89% recurring | +0.06x | +0.08x |
| 60% - 74% recurring | 0.00x | 0.00x |
| Under 60% recurring | -0.15x | -0.20x |
A proxy for durability of the customer base.
| Answer | Effect on low multiple | Effect on high multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3 years | -0.10x | -0.15x |
| 3-5 years | -0.03x | -0.05x |
| 5-10 years | +0.03x | +0.05x |
| 10-20 years | +0.06x | +0.10x |
| 20+ years | +0.08x | +0.12x |
Who the revenue is billed to.
| Answer | Effect on low multiple | Effect on high multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Mainly direct SME customers | +0.05x | +0.08x |
| Mainly web/design agency customers | 0.00x | +0.02x |
| Mix of direct and agency customers | +0.03x | +0.05x |
| Mainly reseller customers | -0.05x | -0.06x |
| Other | 0.00x | 0.00x |
The single largest driver of how long acquired revenue survives.
| Answer | Effect on low multiple | Effect on high multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Under 5% | +0.15x | +0.20x |
| 5-10% | +0.06x | +0.10x |
| 10-15% | -0.03x | -0.05x |
| 15-20% | -0.12x | -0.15x |
| Over 20% | -0.20x | -0.25x |
| Not sure | -0.05x | -0.05x |
How much of the revenue converts to contribution.
| Answer | Effect on low multiple | Effect on high multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Under 30% | -0.15x | -0.20x |
| 30-40% | -0.05x | -0.08x |
| 40-50% | +0.02x | +0.03x |
| 50-60% | +0.08x | +0.12x |
| 60%+ | +0.12x | +0.18x |
| Not sure | -0.03x | -0.03x |
How long customers typically stay.
| Answer | Effect on low multiple | Effect on high multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Under 2 years | -0.08x | -0.10x |
| 2-5 years | +0.02x | +0.03x |
| 5-10 years | +0.08x | +0.10x |
| 10+ years | +0.10x | +0.14x |
| Not sure | -0.03x | -0.03x |
Exposure to the largest single customer.
| Answer | Effect on low multiple | Effect on high multiple |
|---|---|---|
| No customer represents more than 5% | +0.08x | +0.12x |
| Largest customer represents 5-10% | +0.03x | +0.04x |
| Largest customer represents 10-20% | -0.06x | -0.08x |
| Largest customer represents more than 20% | -0.15x | -0.20x |
| Not sure | -0.03x | -0.03x |
Also supplies the mid-point used in the growth calculation.
| Answer | Effect on low multiple | Effect on high multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Under £5 per month | -0.10x | -0.14x |
| £5 - £10 per month | -0.04x | -0.05x |
| £10 - £20 per month | +0.03x | +0.04x |
| £20 - £50 per month | +0.07x | +0.10x |
| Over £50 per month | +0.10x | +0.14x |
| Not sure | -0.03x | -0.03x |
Derived from new customers per year and the ARPU mid-point.
| Answer | Effect on low multiple | Effect on high multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Implied organic growth of 20% of ARR or more | +0.15x | +0.22x |
| 10% - 19.9% | +0.08x | +0.12x |
| 5% - 9.9% | +0.03x | +0.04x |
| 2% - 4.9% | 0.00x | 0.00x |
| Under 2% | -0.08x | -0.12x |
Selections are summed, but the total positive contribution is capped at +0.12x. Negative entries are not capped.
| Answer | Effect on low multiple | Effect on high multiple |
|---|---|---|
| cPanel | +0.05x | +0.06x |
| Plesk | +0.05x | +0.06x |
| WHMCS | +0.04x | +0.05x |
| WordPress | +0.02x | +0.03x |
| VPS / Cloud | +0.02x | +0.03x |
| Dedicated servers | 0.00x | +0.01x |
| Proprietary platform | -0.12x | -0.15x |
| Other | -0.03x | -0.03x |
Where the platform runs today, and how portable it is.
| Answer | Effect on low multiple | Effect on high multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Own hardware / colocation | -0.02x | -0.02x |
| UK hosting provider | +0.04x | +0.05x |
| Public cloud | +0.02x | +0.02x |
| Mix of platforms | -0.04x | -0.05x |
| Not sure | -0.03x | -0.03x |